The U.S. intelligence neighborhood has been buzzing recently with discuss of a possible Kremlin plot to stage assaults towards Russian-speaking Ukrainians, a part of an elaborate plan to manufacture a pretext for navy operations towards its neighbor.
However present and former insiders inform Newsweek that indicators of a so-called "false flag" operation could have been deliberately fed by Moscow to discredit and distract Washington.
One former senior counterintelligence officer who labored towards Russian intelligence advised Newsweek that it couldn't be dominated out that U.S. officers had been the goal of a deliberate ruse by Russia.
"I've zero doubt that we have now intel sources which can be dependable who advised us this," the previous officer mentioned. "Now, there's some chance that our intel sources had been fed misleading data so as to go down this loopy path."
The previous senior counterintelligence officer laid out two potential eventualities, neither of which can ever absolutely come to mild, given the shadowy world of spy video games between two Chilly Conflict-era rivals.
"If it is a deception inside a deception, we're publicly releasing this and it is somewhat embarrassing," the previous officer mentioned. "The Russians can go, 'Hey, large victory, they assume it is actual and so they're releasing the Intel, nevertheless it would not matter as a result of it is by no means going to occur anyway."
"And if it truly was going to occur," the previous officer mentioned, "then it actually cannot occur with out us saying, 'I advised you so.' So that you form of won't ever know."
The end result, in keeping with this former senior counterintelligence officer, is that "we're in a state of affairs the place we have now to surprise if we're being lied concerning the lie." And if that is the case, the objective could also be to throw the U.S. off from the Kremlin's true calculus.
"Is that this complete factor made as much as start with to confuse us about what the Russians intend to do by the Russians mendacity about some large occasion that is coming in to sign that they wish to invade?" the previous officer requested rhetorically. "And a very good purpose to do this is the Russians leaked to us deliberately that they wish to have some large occasion that is going to be when it is time to invade, and you possibly can do this purely to prep the battlefield."
"It could possibly be that the Russians are undecided whether or not or not they wish to invade, that so as to higher shield their invasion plans," the previous counterintelligence officer mentioned, "they need the U.S. to consider that they are going to do that type of factor first after which that approach the U.S. is on the lookout for it after which the Russians invade anyway, as a result of that was all bullshit."
One other present U.S. official with expertise on the matter, particularly within the Baltic area positioned on NATO's western flank with Russia, additionally warned Washington could have fallen for an additional considered one of Moscow's tips.
"I completely consider that the Russians are utilizing each trick within the guide to sway Western intel assessments to attain their objective," the U.S. official mentioned. "What's comically unlucky is that they've employed disinformation and sable rattling for hundreds of years. But we by no means be taught."
Allegations that Russia may fabricate a justification for assaults in Ukraine have been made by President Joe Biden's administration since final month, however extra data on present U.S. intelligence assessments emerged Thursday when State Division Ned Worth laid out one potential state of affairs.
"One attainable possibility the Russians are contemplating, and which we made public at present, entails the manufacturing of a propaganda video," Worth advised reporters, "a video with graphic scenes of false explosions — depicting corpses, disaster actors pretending to be mourners, and pictures of destroyed places or navy tools — totally fabricated by Russian intelligence."
Moscow has balked at Washington's claims, for which the Biden administration has not supplied proof, however one other particular person with an in depth historical past of coping with Moscow described what such a plot might appear to be.
"The Russians are on the lookout for something that even bears a passing resemblance to a provocation for justification for his or her invasion," one former intelligence analyst with information of Russian techniques, strategies and procedures advised Newsweek. "If the Ukrainians do not give them one, they will invent one themselves."
"They've performed it earlier than, they will do it once more," the previous intelligence analyst added. "Could possibly be a 'bloodbath,' could possibly be a 'drone strike,' could possibly be an 'artillery shell,' no matter. You've got already seen Belarusian and Russian claims of Ukrainian drones flying over their borders within the final months."
And the previous intelligence analyst added one other dimension, one centered on Russian-speaking Ukrainians or these holding Russian passports in Ukraine.
"So that they gin up assaults towards Russian-speakers or passport holders that appear to be they're performed by Ukrainian 'extremists' or the Ukrainian navy itself, then say, 'Oh, we do not wish to invade, however we should to guard Russians and restore order,'" the previous intelligence analyst mentioned.
That this state of affairs was being thought of by the administration was confirmed to Newsweek by the U.S. official on the situation of anonymity.
The Division of Protection outlined an identical state of affairs in its personal press convention on Thursday.
"One possibility is the Russian authorities, we predict, is planning to stage a pretend assault by Ukrainian navy or intelligence forces towards Russian sovereign territory or towards Russian-speaking individuals to due to this fact justify their motion," Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby mentioned.
Douglas Sensible, who served within the CIA as a member of the Senior Intelligence Service and was deputy director of the Protection Intelligence Company, spoke to why such a seemingly unbelievable plot may very well make sense to these within the U.S. intelligence neighborhood who know Russia properly.
"It might be very rational for home political causes and for international political causes that the Russians would want a reputable pretext to violate Ukrainian sovereignty," Sensible advised Newsweek.
"And an excellent pretext can be a mass atrocity which the Russian military goes in to forestall," he added, "or the Russian military goes in to avenge and to forestall further atrocities."
Ethnic Russians make up the nation's largest minority, and Russian is Ukraine's second language. Russian-speakers represent a majority within the Donbas area, the place the Moscow-aligned breakaway republics of Donetsk and Lugansk declared independence with out worldwide recognition amid the rise to energy of a pro-West authorities in Kyiv in 2014.
Across the identical time, Russia annexed Crimea in an internationally disputed referendum, which Moscow argued it performed out of concern for the properly being of the Russophone majority within the strategically positioned Black Sea peninsula.
The struggle between Ukrainian troops and separatists within the Donbas area continues to today, with as much as 14,000 killed all through the eight-year battle. Kyiv and its worldwide supporters, together with Washington, have alleged that the rebels are immediately backed by Moscow, which has denied the claims.
However since final yr Russian troops have amassed close to Ukraine's jap border, and the buildup has accelerated in current months. Moscow has denied any plans to take navy motion, however on the identical time has demanded new treaties to handle the Kremlin's safety considerations over an increasing NATO alliance, which Russian President Vladimir Putin has mentioned Ukraine should not be allowed to hitch.
Diplomacy geared toward deescalating the state of affairs between Russia on one aspect and the U.S. and its NATO allies has thus far proven little signal of progress, and Washington has continued to warn that Moscow could stage a provocation within the meantime. The shortage of proof supplied by the U.S. has raised tensions with journalists as properly.
Throughout a heated alternate with a reporter at a State Division press convention on Thursday, Worth mentioned that the claims themselves constituted the extent of the "intelligence data that we have now declassified." Pressed for additional proof, Worth mentioned that "once we make intelligence data public, we achieve this in a approach that protects delicate sources and strategies."
As for Russia itself, Moscow's embassy in Washington shortly dismissed the conspiracy allegations.
Ambassador Anatoly Antonov responded on to Newsweek's query on the matter.
"This lie is a part of the knowledge struggle towards Russia," Antonov mentioned. "Washington has been stirring up the entire world for a number of months with statements that Ukraine is about to develop into a sufferer of the 'Russian aggression.'"
"Nevertheless, issues didn't work out as there isn't any assault," he added. "Apparently, that was the rationale why 'leaks' of some intelligence knowledge with the blasphemous and unfounded accusations you talked about had been used to achieve some form of credibility."
And just like the reporter who challenged Worth's claims at Thursday's State Division press convention, Antonov made reference to the defective intelligence and accompanying narratives that fueled the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq on the said foundation of weapons of mass destructions that had been in the end proved to be nonexistent.
"There's a feeling that U.S. PR specialists, in an effort to compromise Russia, act on the precept of 'throw as a lot filth as attainable, possibly one thing will stick,'" he mentioned. "We all know the worth of such 'compromising materials' of the American particular providers, who've totally disgraced themselves by handing the U.S. Secretary of State a vial with white powder to justify the invasion of Iraq."
Antonov then made a direct enchantment to Newsweek's viewers.
"With all accountability, I wish to guarantee the readers of Newsweek that Russia is just not going to assault anybody," Antonov mentioned. "We'd like neighborly relations with the fraternal Ukrainian individuals."
However he mentioned Moscow remained "involved" about Washington's place on Ukraine, the place a sequence of back-to-back offers often known as the Minsk Agreements between Kyiv and separatists stay in place regardless of common dueling accusations of violations. Each President Joe Biden and his Russian counterpart, together with different leaders concerned within the dispute, have publicly expressed assist for the accords.
Antonov mentioned the "widespread process" of each the Biden and Putin administrations "is to drive Kiev to meet its obligations, sit down on the negotiating desk with representatives of the Donetsk Individuals's Republic and the Luhansk Individuals's Republic and peacefully agree on all the pieces."
"We think about the present American actions to pump weapons into Ukraine to be inaccurate and intensely harmful," Antonov mentioned. "Thus, america indulges the nationalist group in Kiev, which is doing all the pieces to show the Russian-speaking inhabitants right into a persecuted minority in an ethnocratic state. We urge america to not act out scenes for the gullible."
"Essays on the subject of Russian operations 'beneath a false flag' are, apparently, geared toward establishing an alibi for attainable operations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine towards Donbass," he added.
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