MOSCOW --
When the U.S. and NATO rejected the Kremlin's safety calls for over Ukraine final week, fears of an imminent Russian assault towards its neighbour soared.
However as an alternative of sending armored armadas throughout the Ukrainian border because the U.S. and its allies frightened, Moscow bombarded Western capitals with diplomatic letters about a world settlement that the Kremlin sees as a powerful argument for its place within the standoff.
Regardless that President Vladimir Putin mentioned a month in the past that he needed a fast reply to the Russian calls for and warned that Moscow wouldn't settle for "idle speak," earlier this week he signalled an obvious readiness for extra talks with Washington and NATO.
And that gives a glimmer of hope. Though greater than 100,000 Russian troops nonetheless hover close to Ukraine and weeks of talks have led to no main concessions by both aspect, a minimum of Russia and the West hold speaking, and for some specialists that is a cause for cautious optimism.
"On the one hand Putin did hearth rhetorical barbs towards the West and emphasised perceived slights; alternatively he additionally did go away open the potential for speaking in additional element about a minimum of a few of the points the place the West has been keen to interact," mentioned Jeff Rathke, a former U.S. diplomat and president of the American Institute for Modern German Research at Johns Hopkins College.
"We're sort of the place we have been a couple of weeks in the past," Rathke mentioned. "Putin has stored his choices open. He is not dominated out talks but in addition not decreased his strident rhetoric."
Russia and the West stay far aside on probably the most vital points and it is unclear how a compromise might be reached. However the Kremlin's current emphasis on diplomacy seems to replicate Putin's hope to attain his targets via negotiations whereas utilizing the deployment of the troops close to Ukraine as leverage.
"Russia will preserve a troublesome stand whereas indicating that it is not shutting the door to talks," mentioned Fyodor Lukyanov, who heads the Moscow-based Council for International and Defence Insurance policies and intently follows the Kremlin pondering. "Such advanced agreements aren't reached in a soothing ambiance over a cup of tea, so all strategies of persuasion are getting used, together with the demonstration of pressure."
Russia maintains it has no intention to assault its neighbour, nevertheless it calls for that NATO bar membership to Ukraine and different ex-Soviet nations and pledge to not deploy weapons there. It additionally needs NATO deployments in Japanese Europe rolled again.
The U.S. and its allies flatly rejected these calls for as "nonstarters" throughout a sequence of talks final month, however Moscow demanded a written reply, fueling suspicions that it needed a proper rejection of its calls for to make use of as an argument for sending troops into Ukraine.
The U.S. and NATO handed their response to Moscow on Jan. 26, ruling out any concessions on Russia's fundamental calls for however holding the door open for talks on different points, together with limits on offensive missile deployments, better transparency of navy drills and different confidence-building measures.
Putin has but to formulate his response to the Western proposals, however his diplomats have warned it is going to be troublesome to attain any progress on these points if the West continues to stonewall Moscow's fundamental calls for.
The impasse has fuelled fears of imminent hostilities, and in a telephone name final week U.S. President Joe Biden warned Ukraine's president that there's a "distinct risk" Russia will invade in February.
Moscow seems to have opted for a diplomatic observe for now and U.S. officers in current days have toned down their rhetoric about "imminence." However the U.S. has not backed away from the urgency of its issues.
On Monday, Russia's International Minister Sergey Lavrov despatched new letters to his Western counterparts, countering NATO's argument that each nation has the best to decide on alliances. He charged that the alliance's enlargement contradicts its obligation to not strengthen its safety at Russia's expense.
Lavrov mentioned the U.S, and its allies have pledged to respect the "indivisibility of safety" in paperwork signed at summits of the Group for Safety and Cooperation in Europe, the principle trans-Atlantic safety grouping.
"There should be safety for all or there might be no safety for anybody," Lavrov wrote, noting that his ministry would now look ahead to formal replies to his letter earlier than advising Putin on subsequent strikes.
The alternate of letters may set the stage for a protracted sequence of arcane arguments about conflicting interpretations of the OSCE paperwork, and Putin expressed readiness for such discussions.
In his first public remarks on the standoff since late December, the Russian chief famous Tuesday that whereas the West rejects Russia's key calls for, diplomatic efforts ought to proceed. "I hope that we'll finally discover a resolution, though we notice that it is not going to be straightforward," Putin mentioned.
The affected person stand contrasted with Putin's assertion in December that he needs a fast Western reply and will order unspecified "military-technical measures" if the U.S. and its allies proceed to disregard Moscow's issues.
Putin made no point out of any such measures in his feedback this week, saying that "we have to discover a means to make sure pursuits and safety of all events, together with Ukraine, European nations and Russia."
Together with the talks with the U.S. and NATO, Russia additionally engaged in separate negotiations on a stalled 2015 peace deal for japanese Ukraine. A four-way assembly in Paris between presidential envoys from Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany did not produce speedy progress, however they may meet once more in Berlin this month.
French President Emmanuel Macron, who has spoken to Putin 3 times since final Friday, mentioned he is open to visiting Russia to assist defuse tensions, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz additionally introduced his plans to journey to Moscow quickly.
Lukyanov mentioned Russia will probably hold flexing its navy muscle to exhibit its resolve. He famous that Russia may simply afford protecting troops close to Ukraine for a very long time and can proceed a sequence of drills to keep up stress on the West.
"Troops might come and go," Lukyanov mentioned. "It is comparatively low cost and throughout the funds already earmarked for fight coaching."
The drills embrace sweeping joint conflict video games with Russia's ally Belarus, which borders Ukraine to the north, and Lukyanov predicted that Russia may additional beef up its defence ties with the nation.
Belarus' authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko, who has edged nearer to Moscow after being hit with Western sanctions over his crackdown on dissent, already has supplied to host Russian nuclear weapons.
"Belarus might be an necessary component within the sport," Lukyanov mentioned.
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Lee reported from Washington.
U.S. Military troopers from the 18th Airborne Division board a C-17 plane as they deploy to Europe on Feb. 3, 2022 from Fort Bragg, N.C. (AP Photograph/Chris Seward)
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