VILNIUS, LITHUANIA --
Seen from Paris, London and Washington, the occasions unfolding in Ukraine might seem to be a brand new Chilly Struggle taking form in Europe.
From the Baltic international locations, it seems a lot worse.
To Estonians, Latvians and Lithuanians -- notably these sufficiently old to have lived beneath Soviet management -- Russia's belligerence towards Ukraine has some anxious that they may very well be the subsequent goal. The escalating tensions which preceded an assault Thursday introduced again reminiscences of mass deportations and oppression.
"My grandparents have been despatched away to Siberia. My father was persecuted by the KGB. Now I stay in a free democratic nation, however evidently nothing could be taken without any consideration," mentioned Jaunius Kazlauskas, a 50-year-old instructor in Vilnius, Lithuania's capital.
Russia's assault on Ukraine despatched shockwaves by way of the Baltic international locations. Lithuania's president declared a state of emergency, and Latvia suspended the printed licenses of a number of Russian TV stations accused of spreading disinformation and propaganda.
All three Baltic international locations have been seized and annexed by Josef Stalin throughout World Struggle II earlier than gaining independence once more with the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991. They joined NATO in 2004, placing themselves beneath the navy safety of the U.S. and its Western allies. Ukraine will not be a part of NATO.
Together with Poland, additionally a NATO member, the small Baltic international locations have been among the many loudest advocates for highly effective sanctions towards Moscow and NATO reinforcements on the alliance's japanese flank.
Baltic authorities leaders in latest weeks have shuttled to European capitals, warning that the West should make Russian President Vladimir Putin pay for attacking Ukraine, or else his tanks will hold rolling towards different components of the previous Soviet empire.
"The battle for Ukraine is a battle for Europe. If Putin will not be stopped there, he'll go additional," Lithuanian Overseas Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis warned final week in a joint information convention with U.S. Secretary of Protection Lloyd Austin.
Two days earlier than the assault, U.S. President Joe Biden introduced that some American forces deployed in Europe, together with 800 infantry troopers, F-35 fighters and Apache helicopters, can be moved to the three Baltic states, describing the step as purely defensive.
The information was met with enthusiasm within the Baltic capitals. Whereas the NATO treaty commits all allies to defend any member that comes beneath assault, the Baltic international locations say it's crucial that NATO present resolve not simply in phrases however with boots on the bottom.
"Russia at all times measures the navy may but in addition the desire of nations to struggle," mentioned Janis Garisons, state secretary at Latvia's Protection Ministry. "As soon as they see a weak spot, they'll exploit that weak spot."
Whereas Putin hasn't publicly expressed any ambition to reassert Russian management over the Baltic international locations, many Estonians, Latvians and Lithuanians fear he needs to regain affect throughout all former republics of the Soviet Union, the collapse of which he as soon as described as a tragedy for the Russian individuals.
In his speech earlier this week setting the stage for Russia's navy intervention, Putin mentioned Ukraine is "not only a neighboring nation for us. It's an inalienable a part of our personal historical past, tradition and religious house."
Culturally and linguistically totally different, the Baltic international locations do not have the identical connection to Russian historical past and identification. Nevertheless, they have been dominated by Moscow for a lot of the previous 200 years, first by the Russian Empire, then for nearly 50 years following the Second World Struggle by the Soviet Union.
All three international locations have ethnic Russian minorities; in Latvia and Estonia, they make up about one-quarter of the inhabitants.
Although a lot of them are effectively built-in, tensions flared in 2007 when tons of of ethnic Russians rioted towards authorities plans to relocate a Soviet battle memorial in Tallinn, Estonia's capital. Estonia suspected Russia of stoking the unrest and orchestrating cyberattacks that paralyzed authorities pc networks.
"After we hear Putin humiliating Ukraine, calling it a man-made state with no historical past, it reminds us of the identical issues that they've been repeating about all former Soviet republics for a few years," mentioned Nerijus Maliukevicius, a political analyst at Vilnius College.
The Russian "state propaganda machine is now engaged on unprecedented ranges of depth, and the message isn't just about Ukraine," he added.
Lithuania borders each Kaliningrad, a Russian area the place the nation's Baltic Sea fleet relies, and Belarus, the previous Soviet republic the place tens of hundreds of Russian troops have been deployed for joint workout routines. Belarus not too long ago introduced that the drills would proceed due to the tensions in japanese Ukraine.
"It appears they don't seem to be going to depart," Lithuanian Protection Minister Arvydas Anusauskas mentioned earlier than Russia launched its assault on Ukraine. "However we should perceive that numbers don't imply the whole lot. There are technically very superior troops on our aspect of the border. Their most important process is deterrence -- and protection, if essential."
The Baltic international locations have expressed robust assist for Ukraine. Baltic leaders have traveled to Kyiv not too long ago to indicate their solidarity and have despatched each weapons and humanitarian support to Ukraine.
Estonia, which celebrates its independence day on Thursday, is taking a robust stance within the battle, however not as a result of it fears for its safety, mentioned former President Kersti Kaljulaid, the primary lady to carry that workplace.
"We're doing it as a result of we discover it's our ethical obligation," she mentioned. "We very strongly really feel that ... each nation ought to have the suitable to determine their future."
Whereas the Baltics are direct neighbors of Russia, she mentioned different European international locations must be equally anxious in regards to the disaster in Ukraine.
"Frankly talking, I do not suppose it considerations the Baltics extra," she mentioned. "Should you look from Kyiv, it is the identical distance to Berlin as Tallinn."
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Ritter reported from Stockholm. Related Press author Jari Tanner in Helsinki contributed to this report.
Individuals stand by TV screens broadcasting the information of Russian troops which have launched their assault on Ukraine, in Hong Kong Thursday, Feb. 24, 2022. (AP Photograph/Vincent Yu)
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