EDITORIAL: PM's climate math doesn't add up

The more Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault insists Canada will meet its 2030 greenhouse gas emissions reduction target even if the oil and gas sector doesn’t, the more it begs some serious questions.

First, what is the relationship between Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s national carbon taxation/pricing system and actual emission cuts?

The point of Trudeau’s national carbon price — now $50 per tonne of emissions rising to $170 per tonne in 2030 — is to cut emissions.

But if parts or all of the economy aren’t going to meet their 2030 targets, how can Canadians tell if they’re getting good value for money in paying carbon taxes in Ontario, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba — where Trudeau imposed them?

How can they tell in the other provinces, where the Trudeau government approved provincial carbon pricing schemes?

Unless hikes in carbon taxes and pricing are linked to actual emission cuts, how will we know what the true cost per tonne of cutting emissions is?

If the oil and gas industry can’t hit the government’s 2030 target, how can Trudeau still hit his overall target for Canada?

Canada’s oil and gas sector generated 203.5 million tonnes of emissions in 2019, or 27.6% of total emissions of 738 million tonnes.

The transportation sector generated 185.5 million tonnes of emissions, or 25.1% of total emissions; buildings, 92 million tonnes (12.5%); heavy industry, 77.4 million tonnes (10.5%); agriculture, 66.7 million tonnes (9%); electricity, 61.8 million tonnes (8.4%) and waste and others 51.5 million tonnes (7%).

Is Guilbeault saying these six other sectors will be given tougher targets for 2030 to make up for what the oil and gas sector doesn’t cut?

For the oil and gas sector to meet Trudeau’s 2030 target of reducing its annual emissions to at least 42% below 2005 levels by 2030, it will have to cut at least 85.5 million tonnes and ideally 93.5 million tonnes, compared to 2019, in less than eight years.

But the government already missed its 2020 target for cutting total emissions by 123 million tonnes compared to 2019 levels — 2020 being an outlier because it was the first year of the pandemic where economic activity plummeted.

Finally, the Liberals have never hit an emission reduction target they’ve set since their first one in 1993.