Former Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s endorsement of Pierre Poilievre for the Conservative Party of Canada leadership is a big deal … in those parts of the country where Poilievre is already going to wipe the floor with the other candidates.
That means Harper’s endorsement, given Monday, is important on the Prairies, in the interior of B.C. and everywhere in Ontario outside Toronto and Ottawa.
The endorsement of the former CPC leader (who won three consecutive federal elections) helps secure support for Poilievre in enough of the country to assume him victory. Or at least it would assure Poilievre a win in September if the CPC were using a democratic system for selecting its next leader.
At best, the party’s points-based system (rather than vote-based system) is superficially democratic.
It is designed to undermine the significance of Western ridings with tens of thousands of Conservative members, while lifting up the significance of central Canadian and urban ridings with only a few hundred card carriers, or even just a few dozen.
If the Conservative party were using a one-member, one-vote system (like they should be), the race would already be over. Poilievre would have a lock on it.
The frontrunner’s campaign sold nearly half (46%) of the 675,000 memberships sold in this race. Given that Poilievre was probably also the most popular candidate among existing members who didn’t have to buy new memberships, it’s not a stretch to project that in a purely democratic race, Poilievre would almost certainly win a first-ballot victory.
But the CPC’s points system is not entirely democratic. And that is why in early June, former Quebec Liberal Premier, Jean Charest, who is seen as second in the race, boasted “We have a confirmed path to victory … we have the points we need to win the leadership race.”
How is that possible, given that the Charest camp sold only about half as many memberships as the Poilievre camp Because no matter how many members a riding has in it, it only counts for 100 points towards electing the next CPC leader.
Those 100 points are distributed according to the percentage of the vote won by each candidate in that riding. However, the points system greatly diminishes the influence of large Western and rural Ontario ridings in favour of urban and Quebec ridings with far fewer members.
For instance, a single vote in an Alberta riding with 20,000 members is worth 100 times less than a vote in a Quebec riding with just 200 members.
The points system could foist on the party and the country a leader – like Charest – who has less support than a candidate like Poilievre.
That’s the main reason Conservative party brass don’t like releasing the raw vote totals, because the raw totals might show that the No. 2 candidate actually won.
Imagine what revolts there would be if our second-best candidates were routinely declared the winners of races for mayor, provincial legislator or MP.
Harper’s endorsement of Poilievre probably makes such an outrageous result less likely. Both before and since Harper’s announcement, I have been confident Poilievre has enough support across the country to win on the first ballot, despite the CPC’s unbalanced voting system.
Moreover, I also think Poilievre has a far better chance of winning a general election than Liberal, lefty and “progressive” media analysts believe. Just because they can’t conceive of someone with Poilievre’s views leading the country doesn’t mean Canadian voters share the same unfounded, hysterical fears.
Andrew Scheer’s and Erin O’Toole’s problem (especially O’Toole’s) was appealing too little to the CPC base while simultaneously not picking up enough moderate voters. Poilievre should follow Harper’s lead and secure as many conservatives as possible and energize them to go to the polls.
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