Heat warnings, late-day storm potential for Calgary this weekend

AFTERNOON UPDATE: The only change of magnitude comes late in the week; this line of heat and that weak impulse have upgraded, in my eyes, from "weak showers" to "thundershower risk."

Otherwise, the heat-warned spree is still driving the bus through the weekend.

 

MORNING EDITION: Monday’s shove into the ridge of high pressure is already starting to work out well for us – we’re experiencing a change-up in the forecast today. Though we’ll still experience a few drearier moments, the temperature and dewpoint temperatures won’t spend a ton of time together. Fog patches in some areas will persist only briefly before dissipating. We’ll be in for a mainly clear day.

The warm-up continues throughout the week with nary a cloud to be seen; Tuesday and Wednesday are the leadups into a heat-warned weekend, with Thursday, Friday, and now Saturday all linking arms in heat-warned parameters. There was/is a drop expected, but most models are in agreement that the ridge of high pressure is going to be a bit longer-lasting than previously measured. This ridge is starting to press heat on our side of the boundary, but only through the Peace River Valley, at this point:

HEAT WARNING from Environment Canada. https://t.co/ZEfYJT1M8i #abstorm pic.twitter.com/Gc67iiLSIS

— Kevin Stanfield (@CTVStanfield) July 26, 2022

Within the core of the ridge, a few weak impulses are possible, which may generate some light showers Saturday and Sunday evening. I cannot over-emphasize the word "light", in this case.

I had a really nifty question come through on Twitter and wanted to re-address it here:

Does the nighttime average temperature seem high to anyone else the past few summers. It's not even hot today but it doesn't look like it will drop much at all tonight. What leads to that? #yycweather #abstorm #abweather @CTVStanfield @cyycweather @cmcalgary

— Zan (@Zanjandro) July 25, 2022

This was a gooder, so I made a weather board for it:

Following inquiry from @Zanjandro, here are the average lows for the months of June and July in #Calgary over the last 30 years.

I've also included the linear trend lines and their respective positions on the y-axis, for illustrative purposes.

TL;DR: it's warmer now. #yyc pic.twitter.com/MqBliDYGEW

— Kevin Stanfield (@CTVStanfield) July 25, 2022

Which was followed here:

Addendum: I received an email asking for additional data. Here's the hard-to-read edition that tracks out to sixty years:

Trend-line Y-axis endpoints:

June: 6.7 -> 8.4

July: 8.7 -> 11.6 pic.twitter.com/r6q94inSDR

— Kevin Stanfield (@CTVStanfield) July 26, 2022

Your five day forecast:

Tuesday

• 
  Evening: some cloud, low 13 C

Wednesday

• 
  Sunny


• 
  Daytime high: 27 C


• 
  Evening: mainly clear, low 15 C

Thursday

• 
  Sunny


• 
  Daytime high: 29 C


• 
  Evening: mainly clear, low 14 C

Friday

• 
  Sunny, risk of pm storms


• 
  Daytime high: 30 C


• 
  Evening: some cloud, low 15 C

Saturday

• 
  Sunny, risk of pm storms


• 
  Daytime high: 29 C


• 
  Evening: some cloud, chance of showers, low 17 C

Sunday

• 
  Partly cloudy, risk of pm storms


• 
  Daytime high: 30 C


• 
  Evening: some cloud, chance of showers, low 14 C

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