This is my seventh season of picking NFL winners — not against the spread, but rather straight up. That is, scoreboard winners, irrespective of whatever the point spread might be.
Last season’s success rate was my worst yet, 61.9%, although I did go 59-19 (75.6%) down the stretch.
This, after my best season in 2020 (65.8%), which followed annual success rates of 64.5% in 2016, 64.1% in 2017, 65.2% in 2018 and 63.9% in 2019.
That’s a six-year average of 64.2% — just so you know what you’re getting here, for better or worse.
Until last year my goal each season was to be correct at least 65.0% of the time. I upped that to 66.0% last year and, yeah, that didn’t work out. Back to 65.0% in 2022.
To Week 1 then:
Buffalo at L.A. Rams, Thursday
KRYK PICK: Buffalo
Good start to the season: 1-0.
New Orleans at Atlanta, Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
KRYK PICK: New Orleans
We’ll see how mobile and able Jameis Winston is at QB for the Saints, coming off ACL surgery. If he throws three TDs and three picks, though, it might just be Jameis being Jameis.
Cleveland at Carolina, Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
KRYK PICK: Carolina
Sack-fest? Maybe. Expect a vengeful Baker Mayfield to sparkle against his old team, the Browns. Panthers D will harass Deshaun Watson’s temp Jacoby Brissett throughout.
San Francisco at Chicago, Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
(CTV BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan; CTV2 Atlantic; via FOX)
KRYK PICK: San Francisco
Some think the Niners are so good they’ll reach the Super Bowl. No way, unless Trey Lance shines in his first season as starter. I’d be shocked if he does — after this week anyway.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati, Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
(TSN 3-4; CTV Northern Ontario, Winnipeg; CTV2 Alberta, Ottawa, Vancouver Island; via CBS)
KRYK PICK: Cincinnati
Bengals QB Joe Burrow, arguably the NFL’s best player over the last half of last season, missed a lot of camp while recovering from appendicitis. Steelers’ turn for a gut ache.
Philadelphia at Detroit, Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
(CTV Ottawa; CTV2 Toronto, London/Windsor; via FOX)
KRYK PICK: Detroit
If you missed my playoff picks in my 2022 season overview, know that I went out on a limb — WAY out — and chose the Lions as an NFC wild-card. In for a dime, in for a dollar.
Indianapolis at Houston, Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
KRYK PICK: Indianapolis
Matt Ryan makes his debut as Colts QB, after 14 years as a Falcon. I think Ryan can still be elite — with a run game and good protection. Which he’ll get in Indy. Colts romp.
New England at Miami, Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
(CTV Toronto, Montreal, Kitchener, Atlantic; via CBS)
KRYK PICK: Miami
Even great Patriots teams circa 2001-18 often lost in South Florida. Tyreek Hill and a bevy of star free-agent signees make their debuts for the Dolphins. This might get ugly, fast.
Baltimore at N.Y. Jets, Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
KRYK PICK: Baltimore
Some believe the Ravens, who dropped to last place in the AFC North by last season’s end, after all those injury ravagings, might win the division this year. (Raises hand.)
Jacksonville at Washington, Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT
KRYK PICK: Jacksonville
Doug Pederson makes his debut as Jags head coach. Does he have Trevor Lawrence, the 2021 No. 1 overall pick, ready to play up to his billing? Kid ought to be way better, at any rate.
Kansas City at Arizona, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT
(CTV Toronto, BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Kitchener; via CBS)
KRYK PICK: Kansas City
If the Cards still had an effective pass rush I’d be inclined to pick them. But Chandler Jones is gone (to Vegas). And Patrick Mahomes is out to prove he’s elite even without Tyreek Hill.
Las Vegas at L.A. Chargers, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT
(CTV Northern Ontario; via CBS)
KRYK PICK: Las Vegas
Few teams in the off-season added as much talent than these two. The Raiders, behind new coach Josh McDaniels, now have WR Davante Adams and DE Chandler Jones. Look out.
Green Bay at Minnesota, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT
(TSN 3-4; CTV Montreal, Ottawa, Winnipeg; CTV2 Atlantic; via FOX)
KRYK PICK: Green Bay
Mike Zimmer is gone as Vikings head coach. Enter Kevin O’Connell. Can he get more out of Kirk Cousins? He’ll have to to knock the Pack from its comfy division perch. Not this day.
N.Y. Giants at Tennessee, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT
KRYK PICK: Tennessee
Don’t automatically write off the Giants under new head coach Brian Daboll. But this is a tough debut, against a Titans team with a ton to prove. How much will Titans miss A.J. Brown?
Tampa Bay at Dallas, Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
(TSN; CTV2; via NBC)
KRYK PICK: Tampa Bay
Everyone’s saying the Cowboys offence is diminished. Probably so. Tampa Bay’s isn’t. Brady’s back, and his pass-catching corps is as good as anyone’s. And the D is younger.
Denver at Seattle, Monday, 8:15 p.m. EDT
(TSN; CTV2; via ESPN)
KRYK PICK: Denver
Does it even matter whether Geno Smith or Drew Lock quarterbacks the Seahawks in ’22? Russell Wilson makes his Broncos debut in Seattle, of all places. Emotional win for him.
– – –
BYES THIS WEEK: None.
SEASON RECORD: 0-0 (.000)
John Kryk writes a weekly newsletter on NFL matters. That’s where you can first see his straight-up picks each week. You can have the newsletter automatically dropped into your email inbox on Wednesdays simply by signing up — for free — at https://torontosun.com/newsletters/
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