It was a commanding first-ballot victory for Pierre Poilievre as the Conservative leadership race reached its crescendo on Saturday night in Ottawa. Poilievre took 68% of the points needed to win, eclipsing second-place candidate Jean Charest with 16%.
Conservative MP Leslyn Lewis placed third with 9%, Roman Baber took 5% and Scott Aitchinson walked away with 1%.
After a hard-fought and at-times bitter leadership race, the focus turns to uniting the party, the Conservative caucus and preparing for the next election. While the Liberals and New Democrats have an agreement to keep Parliament functioning until 2025, when Parliament is in a minority situation, anything can happen.
There has already been speculation of a fall election with discussions of voting day taking place in November after Quebec’s provincial vote on Oct. 3 and Ontario’s municipal vote on Oct. 24.
Poilievre took aim at Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his Liberal government.
“We have a government that doesn’t provide the basic services it is supposed to, while coming up with complex and damaging programs. Canadians don’t need a government to run their lives. We need a government that can run its own passport offices,” Poilievre said.
“Canadians need a Prime Minister who hears them and offers hope that they can again afford their homes, their bills, their food and a secure retirement. I will be that Prime Minister.”
Poilievre focused on economic issues when he took the podium, speaking of the need to build more homes, make homes affordable again, using Canadian resources, growing Canadian food and getting spending and taxes under control.
“Today, when a single mother of three making $55,000 goes out and earns another dollar, she loses 80 cents to taxes and claw backs of her benefits stopping her from getting ahead,” Poilievre said. “I will reform programs and cut taxes so that when people earn more, they keep more of their own money. Hard work should pay off.”
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Better position than Harper started in
Darrell Bricker, CEO of Public Affairs for global polling firm Ipsos, said the latest numbers show that Poilievre starts as leader in a better position than when Stephen Harper founded the Conservative Party 20 years ago, but he has some work to do.
The Conservatives are seen as a real mainstream alternative now, that wasn’t the case when Harper started,” Bricker said. “The new party was too often seen as on the fringe or extreme, now they’re not.”
There is a real problem for Poilievre, though, in that most voters don’t know much about him, which could be an asset or a liability depending on how things play out. A recent Ipsos poll showed that 23% of Canadian voters have a favourable view of Poilievre, 35% have a negative view and 42% don’t know enough about him to have a view of the new Conservative leader.
Bricker said that represents an opportunity for Poilievre but also for the Liberals as they race to define him in the minds of voters. He said that Poilievre needs to increase that favourable rating among voters — specifically those that don’t know him — before the Liberals convince voters that the new Conservative leader is too risky to trust.
“He needs to find a way to do what Erin O’Toole and Andrew Scheer couldn’t do, connect to a suburban voter in the 905, most likely an immigrant, on issues that matter to them, like economic opportunity,” Bricker said.
Expecting a flurry of Liberal attacks
How Poilievre and his team will define him and his leadership remains to be seen but they are already asking supporters to back them with a donation to counter what they expect will be the Liberal barrage of attacks.
“Trudeau’s Liberals are going to unleash a wave of advertising attacking me, trying to scare Canadians before I can punch back,” Poilievre told supporters in an email.
He went on to say that he wants his team booking ads delivering his message of hope and freedom as soon as Monday morning while also asking for donations to pay for the ads.
Poilievre didn’t need to wait for the ads to start before the attacks started, Liberal cabinet minister Dominic LeBlanc was on site at the event calling Poilievre’s campaign “a series of reckless and irresponsible ideas” in a interview with CTV.
In his victory speech, Poilievre attempted to define himself as someone looking out for the Canadian dream, that no matter who you are or where you come from, you can get ahead in this country.
“We will restore Canada’s promise — in a country where it does not matter who you love or if your name is Smith or Singh; Martin or Mohammad, Chang or Charles,” Poilievre said.
“A country where the dreamer, the farmer, the worker, the entrepreneur, the survivor—the ones who get knocked down, but keep getting up and keep going — can achieve their purpose.”
Poilievre clearly sees his purpose as to serve as prime minister and he’s likely correct that the Liberals will come at him with everything they have. Whether he can get back up when they knock him down will determine whether he can win the next election and achieve that purpose.
Let the campaigning begin.
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