There were 369 people in hospital in B.C. with COVID-19 on Thursday, a very small increase from 367 the week before, according to the B.C. Centre for Disease Control.
The increase of just two patients comes after a much larger increase last week, as officials continue to prepare for an expected surge in hospitalizations from the coronavirus, influenza and other respiratory illnesses this fall and winter.
This graph shows the number of people in hospital with COVID-19 in B.C. on Thursdays since the province switched to a "hospital census" model in January. (CTV)
The hospitalization totals the BCCDC reports each week include both those who are hospitalized because of severe cases of COVID-19 and those who are hospitalized for other reasons and test positive incidentally.
Officials have estimated that between 40 and 50 per cent of the patients reported in hospital each week are actually there because of the disease, rather than for other reasons.
Since B.C. began reporting hospitalizations according to this "hospital census" model, there have been as many as 985 and as few as 255 people in hospital with COVID-19 on a Thursday.
FRASER HEALTH DRIVES GROWTH
Though the overall number of test-positive patients in hospital was essentially unchanged this week, there was considerably more variation at the regional level.
Fraser Health saw its hospitalized population increase from 118 last week to 137 this week, while the Interior and Northern health authorities saw more modest increases.
Vancouver Coastal Health, meanwhile, saw a decrease of almost as many patients as Fraser Health gained, dropping from 121 last week to 103 this week. Island Health's hospital population also declined, though only slightly.
This graph shows the number of test-positive COVID-19 patients in hospital in each health authority on Thursdays since April. (CTV)
NEW CASES AND NEW HOSPITALIZATIONS
The number of patients in hospital is the only up-to-date data the BCCDC releases each week. All of the other information included in its weekly report corresponds to the most recent "epidemiological week" – in this case, Sept. 25 to Oct. 1.
This week, the report included a "key messages" section for the first time since the province switched to weekly reporting on COVID data back in April.
"In the most recent week (Sept. 25 – Oct. 1), the number of COVID-19 cases increased compared to the previous week (Sept. 18 – Sept. 24)," the section begins.
"Hospitalizations, critical care admissions, and deaths are stable or lower than the previous week."
There were 697 new lab-confirmed cases of COVID-19 during the week that ended Oct. 1, according to the BCCDC. That's up from 636 recorded during the preceding epidemiological week.
Those numbers are a significant undercounting of the actual spread of the coronavirus in B.C., however, because they don't include the results of rapid antigen testing, which is the only type of testing available to most B.C. residents with symptoms.
The independent B.C. COVID-19 Modelling Group has suggested that weekly case counts are off by a factor of roughly 100, meaning – if the group's estimate is accurate – that 697 new lab-confirmed cases corresponds to roughly 69,700 actual new infections during the week.
Similarly, the weekly report notes that data on new hospitalizations and new deaths that occurred during the last epidemiological week are subject to revision and "likely to become more complete over time."
The report compares the new hospitalizations from Sept. 25 to Oct. 1 favourably to the preceding week's total, with the BCCDC saying in its key messages that "new hospital admissions were slightly lower this week (n=185) compared to the previous week (n=198)."
That's misleading, however, because the previous week's total for new hospitalizations began at 150, and has been revised up to 198 in the latest report. This week is starting at a higher point, and if it grows by the same percentage that last week's figure did, the true number of new hospitalizations for the period will be revised upward to roughly 244, a slightly higher total than last week's, rather than a slightly lower one.
DEATHS
This same pattern can be seen in the weekly reporting on deaths. The report notes that there were 19 reported for the week ending Oct. 1, describing this total as "lower" than the previous week's. However, the previous week's total began at 16 and was revised up to 34 in the latest report. If the same pattern holds for this week's number, it will end up higher than 34.
It should be noted that the deaths reported each week represent "30-day, all-cause mortality." This means anyone who dies within 30 days of a positive COVID-19 test is included in the total, regardless of whether the disease was the underlying cause.
The province's Vital Statistics agency reviews all of the deaths attributed to COVID-19 and determines what the underlying cause of death was.
So far, Vital Statistics has determined that 511 of the 1,177 deaths for which an underlying cause has been found since April 2 were caused by COVID-19. That's roughly 43 per cent of the total.
VACCINATION
Last week, health officials announced plans to free up space in B.C.'s hospitals in anticipation of a surge in hospitalizations caused by COVID-19, influenza and other respiratory illnesses this winter.
Provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry and Health Minister Adrian Dix said B.C.'s population has high levels of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies from vaccination and prior infection, meaning COVID-19 does not pose as much of a threat to most people in the province as it did in previous winters.
For this reason, according to Henry and Dix, restrictions like mandatory mask-wearing, limits on gatherings and vaccine passports are unlikely to come back, even if cases and hospitalizations rise.
Individuals can and should still take precautions if they want to avoid getting sick, including wearing masks at indoor gatherings and getting a booster dose of the Omicron-targeting bivalent vaccine.
During the week ending Oct. 1, the province administered 133,514 doses of COVID-19 vaccines, an increase of about 11,000 from the previous week.
At least some of those shots were given to people who had called to schedule appointments despite not yet being invited to do so by the province's online booking system.
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