Ontario could be slow-walking into an electricity disaster that should serve as a warning to other provinces that care about keeping the lights on for their citizens.
The reason is the apparent infatuation of Premier Doug Ford’s government with eliminating the use of natural gas to provide electricity.
That’s because natural gas generates greenhouse gas emissions, although it’s the cleanest-burning fossil fuel and is recognized by the G7, of which Canada is a member, and the European Union, as a transitional form of green energy.
Ontario’s electricity system is 94% emissions free, one of the cleanest in the world, powered mainly by nuclear power and hydro.
Last week, the province’s Independent Electricity System Operator – which runs the system – politely warned the Ford government that eliminating natural gas could result in California-style blackouts and power rationing, to say nothing of skyrocketing electricity bills.
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The reason is simple: Wind and solar power cannot provide base load power to the electricity grid on demand.
Aside from being needed to back them up — because they don’t work when the wind isn’t blowing and the sun isn’t shining — natural gas electricity generation is needed so the system can respond quickly to periods of high demand.
Demand in Ontario is projected to increase dramatically in the next few years, in part because of government policies aimed at building new public transit systems that run on electricity, as well as Ford’s plan to make Ontario a North American leader in the production of electric vehicles and EV batteries.
The IESO says Ontario will require 4,000 megawatts (MW) of new electricity generation between 2025 and 2027, the equivalent of adding a city the size of Toronto to the system.
To meet that demand, the IESO wants to add 1,500 MW of natural gas generation capacity to the system (increasing emissions by 2% to 4% above current projections) plus up to 2,500 MW of battery storage capacity.
While the latter was likely included to appease the government, that’s risky because battery storage of electricity at levels required to power industrialized countries is at an early stage of development.
Ontario currently has less than 100 MW of battery storage and integrating it into the system, the IESO says, will be complicated.
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