There weren’t too many unhappy Winnipeg Jets fans heading into the Christmas break.
It’s hard to argue with second place in the Central Division and fourth in the Western Conference. Those spots in the standings weren’t on too many bingo cards prior to the curtain raising on the 2022-23 campaign.
And yet there the team is, sitting pretty with a seemingly sure-bet 90.6% shot at making the playoffs through 34 games and the ninth-best odds at winning the Stanley Cup, both according to MoneyPuck.
Turns out a new voice and a fresh set of eyes can work miracles.
Still, at 21-12-1, the Jets haven’t hit the halfway point of the season. There’s a lot of hockey to be played, and the Jets haven’t been spared of any obstacles so far this season.
There has been plenty of good, of course. And there are areas where the team will need to improve as the charge for the playoffs intensifies over the coming weeks and months.
What’s been good?
1. Defensive scoring
Why is Josh Morrissey now known as Josh Norrissey? Perhaps it’s because he has 39 points in 34 games (second among NHL defenceman) and 33 assists (tied for first with San Jose’s Erik Karlsson), or maybe it’s because he’s tied for the league lead in game-winning goals by a defender at four. Whatever the case, Morrissey has led the way for the Jets, who have become a force from the blue-line. Winnipeg defencemen have produced 17 goals this season, just seven shy of the basement-dwelling 24 over 82 games last year. They’re on pace to hit the 40-goal mark that head coach Rick Bowness set out for them prior to the season starting. Winnipeg’s combined 84 points from the back end rank fourth (they were 19th last season with 163 total).
2. The penalty kill
The Jets are fifth on the penalty kill this season at 81.9%. By comparison, through 34 games in 2021-22, Winnipeg was 31st at 71.1%. That’s a staggering improvement, a byproduct of better play and personnel at 4-on-5. Contributions from the likes of Saku Maenalanen, Morgan Barron and David Gustafsson have really benefited the Jets, reducing the load on Adam Lowry’s shoulders, and Mason Appleton’s, too, when he was healthy. Winnipeg’s shots against on the kill has also seen a dramatic improvement. They’ve allowed 126 against this season through 34 games, tied for the fewest in the NHL, and their 49.5 shots against per 60 are sixth best. That number was 63.2 last season.
3. Goaltending
Connor Hellebuyck is the best goaltender at 5-on-5 in the NHL. His 17.3 goals saved above expected is glowing proof. Hellebuyck has led the way once again this season, rebounding from a quote-unquote down year last season to return to Vezina-calibre numbers. Winnipeg sits third in the NHL in team save percentage at .918, behind the NHL’s best team in Boston and the reigning Stanley Cup champion Colorado Avalanche. The Jets also are third in goals-against average at 2.41.
What needs to get better?
1. Health
This goes without saying, but the team needs some players back in the lineup. There’s $24 million on injured reserve right now for Winnipeg, including Nikolaj Ehlers, who has missed all but two games (and may be the closest to finally returning), Blake Wheeler, Mason Appleton, Nate Schmidt, Maenalanen, and Logan Stanley. And we still await the status of Cole Perfetti, who took a thumping hit in Boston last week that had him concerned about his shoulder. Perfetti wouldn’t add much to that salary cap total, but he’s the third top-six player out at the moment.
2. Power-play consistency
When the Jets won seven of eight beginning at the end of November and stretching into the middle of this month, they were scoring at least one power-play goal per game during the span. In their 12 losses this season, the Jets have scored just four power-play goals on 34 attempts (11.8%). For the most part, when it’s producing, the Jets are winning. And when it isn’t, they’re prone to losing. They have scored at least one power-play goal in 14 of their 21 wins and just three times in their 12 losses.
3. Better starts
How many times this season has Bowness bemoaned a rough start? Even in wins, such as the 5-1 drubbing of the Ottawa Senators last week, the head coach has spit nails speaking to the media about needing to be better out of the gate. Fourteen times this season the Jets have allowed the first goal of the game and they have only won half of those games (They’re 14-5-1 when scoring first, by comparison). They have been outshot in the first period in half of their games now, with a 9-7-1 record, but are 10-3 when outshooting their opponents in the opening frame.
Coming out of the break, the Jets have lost five of their past eight, and are losers of two straight.
One of the hallmarks of their good start has been their ability to stop the bleeding before it hits three games. They will face the Minnesota Wild on Tuesday, another division game against a club that has worked its way to three points back of the Jets with a game in hand.
The Jets have done a good job mitigating their injuries, and finding timely assistance from their depth players. At least in the short term, that need will persist until some of their walking wounded return to health.
The team has made tremendous gains, especially looking back to last season. Looking forward, and on a team that continues to grow, there’s tremendous potential on the horizon if they stay the course.
sbilleck@postmedia.com
Twitter: @scottbilleck
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