BEST BETS
CLEVELAND BROWNS (6-9) AT WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (7-7-1)
LINE: Washington -2
CHEWABLE: Ron Rivera had to do something to shake things up after Taylor Heinicke went winless in his last three starts, so “here’sssss Carson” with the Commanders clinging to the NFC’s final playoff spot and the Browns lined up to play spoiler … Carson Wentz did look good in relief against the top ranked Niners defence last week, completing 12 of 16 for 123 yards and a TD, while Deshaun Watson took a step backwards (15-of-31 for 135 and a pick) in a 17-10 loss to the Saints, but this game should be dictated by the Commander’s fourth ranked defence. Chase Young will see more action this week after he was on a 30-snap count against San Fran, and Browns have averaged 11 points a game while losing two of their last three lost two-of-three … Brian Robinson had three strong games before running into the Niners brick wall. He’ll find the pedalling easier against the Browns 25th-ranked run defence.
TAKING: WASHINGTON -2
SCORE (O/U 40.5): Commanders 24, Browns 14
CHICAGO BEARS (3-12) AT DETROIT LIONS (7-8)
LINE: Detroit -6
CHEWABLE: Bears aren’t even mediocre at many things, but they’re the best in the league running the ball, averaging 179.7 yards a game. For all the strides Lions have made, they’ve still allowed a league-high 409.9 yards per outing with a 28th ranked run defence. Last week Detroit allowed the Panthers 320 yards along the ground with D’Onta Foreman racking up 165 (7.9 yard average) and Chuba Hubbard adding 125 (10.4 yard average), and now, along with trying to stop David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert, the Lions have to deal with Justin Fields. Not only is Fields seventh in league rushing, but with 1,011 yards he’s just 195 from Lamar Jackson’s single season record for most rushing real estate churned up by a QB. To say he’s going to set the new mark on Sunday might be a stretch, but Fields did run for 147 yards and two scores when Lions defeated the Bears 31-30 in Week 10 … To make the playoffs Lions have to beat the Bears and then the Packers next week, while counting on Washington and Seattle to each lose once. For Chicago, this will be the last meaningful game of the season. Playing spoilers against a rival that beat them by a single point will be a motivating factor for the Bears.
TAKING: CHICAGO +6
SCORE (O/U 52): Lions 33, Bears 28
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (11-4) AT LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (6-9)
LINE: San Francisco -6
CHEWABLE: Industry secret – the odds we use on these pages is a consensus from 13 Ontario sports books as they were at noon on Wednesday. This week, at around 2 p.m., Raiders announced they were going to go with Jarrett Stidham rather than Derek Carr for their final two games, even though they still had a (sliver-thin) chance of making the playoffs. The line moved four points, and even at double digits it would be unwise to back the first career start of a 2019 fourth round pick against the best defence in the NFL, a unit that has allowed an average of 12.12 points per game over a current 8-game winning streak. Niners can still improve their playoff seeding, so Kyle Shanahan is certain to keep a foot on the gas.
TAKING: SAN FRANCISCO -6
SCORE (O/U 45.5): Niners 31, Raiders 10
********************************************************
CAROLINA PANTHERS (6-9) AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (7-8)
LINE: Tampa -3
CHEWABLE: During Panthers 2-7 start they fired their coach, traded Christian McCaffrey, used four quarterbacks, dumped Robbie Anderson for fighting with an assistant and, under interim coach Steve Wilks, turned things around to the point they can win the NFL South by beating Bucs and Saints in their final two games … Tampa lost three of four before sneaking past the woeful Cardinals 19-16 last week. It wasn’t a pretty performance by the Tom Brady-led offence, which scored its one and only TD past the midway mark of the fourth quarter … Tommy Turnover has thrown two interceptions in each of the last three games … Panthers defence shut down Bucs 21-3 in Week 7. … Tough to imagine Brady being out-duelled by Sam Darnold in a playoff-type game, but it’s tougher to imagine the pesky Panthers not bringing this one down to the wire.
TAKING: CAROLINA +3
SCORE (O/U 40): Bucs 21, Panthers 20
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (6-9) AT PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (13-2)
LINE: Philadelphia -6.5
CHEWABLE: Jalen Hurts (shoulder) practised on Thursday, but whether it’s him or Gardner Minshew under centre, Philadelphia will be without its true MVP OT Lane Johnson, who will holding off surgery to repair a torn adductor but sit on the sidelines until the post-season … Eagles are looking to clinch top seed in NFC and rebound from a Christmas Day loss to the Cowboys. Beating Saints means they’ll be able to rest some starters next week … Despite defeating Browns last week for their second win in row, Saints have what theringer.com calculates as a 3% chance of making the playoffs … Eagles lead the league with a 29.7 points per game average while the Saints are 23rd with a 19 points per game average. New Orleans has averaged just 13.5 points in its last four games.
TAKING: PHILADELPHIA -6.5
SCORE (O/U 44): Eagles 34, Saints 20
ARIZONA CARDINALS (4-11) AT ATLANTA FALCONS (5-10)
LINE: Atlanta -3.5
CHEWABLE: Some games are much better to bet than to watch. Cardinals are last in the NFC West and have lost five in a row. Falcons are last in the NFC South and have dropped four straight. On Wednesday Kliff Kingsbury announced that Colt McCoy has cleared concussion protocol and will be his starting QB. McCoy’s not very good but he’s a lot better than the alternative, Trace McSorley. As it stands, Falcons shouldn’t be favoured by more than a field goal, if at all … Both teams have bad defences but Atlanta’s is worse, and the Cards are likely to want to help J.J. Watt go out a winner.
TAKING: ARIZONA +3.5
SCORE (O/U 42): Cardinals 17, Falcons 15
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (7-8) AT HOUSTON TEXANS (2-12-1)
LINE: Jacksonville -4.5
CHEWABLE: Over the last two months Trevor Lawrence has become one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. His next hurdle is the Texans, against whom he is 0-3 with three TD passes and five interceptions … In Week 5, Texans beat Jags 13-6. Lawrence completed 25-of-47 for 286 yards, no TD passes and two picks … Houston has the league-worst run defence and it’s not even close, and that should translate into a big day for Travis Etienne, the Jags rookie RB who has had an exceptional season and is coming off two strong performances … Jags have won three in a row and four of their last five. They also have five more victories than Texans, but at 7-8-0 have a worse ATS record than Houston (7-7-1) … Jags can still grab the seventh spot in the AFC by losing to Titans next week, but a number of other results have to fall their way – including, quite likely, a win over Houston Sunday.
TAKING: JACKSONVILLE -4.5
SCORE (O/U 43.5): Jaguars 28, Texans 21
MIAMI DOLPHINS (8-7) AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (7-8)
LINE: New England -3
CHEWABLE: What we know is the Dolphins have lost four games in a row, still have a 67% chance of making the playoffs and will have Teddy Bridgewater as their quarterback, replacing the concussed Tua Tagovailoa. What we also know is the Patriots have lost two in a row, have a 20% chance of making the playoffs and MIGHT turn to Bailey Zappe rather than go with the struggling Mac Jones … Both teams have Top 10 run defences, but Patriots lost 20-7 in Miami Week 1 largely because they couldn’t contain Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Bridgewater can get the ball to those two just as easily as Tua could. Wrong team is favoured by a field goal.
TAKING: MIAMI +3
SCORE (O/U 41.5): Dolphins 27, Patriots 24.
DENVER BRONCOS (4-11) AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (12-3)
LINE: Kansas City -13
CHEWABLE: After Panthers fired Matt Rhule in October, actionnetwork.com reported that 32 teams had cut ties with their head coach since 2003, and in the first game after the change they were 15-17 SU and 17-15 ATS. It was also pointed out that while the 46.9% SU win rate might not look great, those teams were a combined 84-229-2 (26.8%) SU and 116-193-5 ATS (37.5) before the change … Not suggesting the Broncos will pull off an upset after losing by 37 to Rams last week, but we do expect a little pride and some bounce back by a Denver team that only lost by six (34-28) to Chiefs in Week 14. Denver could have won that one but Russell Wilson, who completed 23-of-36 for 247 yards, three TDs and an interception and carried the ball four times for 57 yards, was sidelined by a concussion … Chiefs have won just four games by 14 or more points, and it’s not about to become five against a Broncos defence that is still ranked fifth despite last week’s embarrassment. Chiefs will, however, win their 15th consecutive game against Denver.
TAKING: DENVER +13
SCORE (O/U 45): Chiefs 27, Broncos 20
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (4-10-1) AT NEW YORK GIANTS (8-6-1)
LINE: New York -6
CHEWABLE: Just two games left in the NFL head coaching career of Jeff Saturday, who last Monday benched Matt Ryan for Nick Foles only to watch the latter throw three picks and get sacked seven times in a 20-3 loss to the Chargers. Does Saturday go back to Ryan on Sunday? As we wait with bated breath for an announcement there was a meme on Twitter with a pic showing Ryan and Saturday with the following quote attributed to Saturday: “Matt is the worst quarterback I’ve ever coached, and I’ve only coached high school.” Again, it was a meme, and it likely doesn’t matter who Saturday goes with, as the Giants need the win to make the playoffs, and Saquon Barkley is cookin’ with 253 scrimmage yards in the last two games.
TAKING: NEW YORK +6
SCORE (O/U 38.5): Giants 24, Colts 17
NEW YORK JETS (7-8) AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (7-8)
LINE: New York -1.5
CHEWABLE: Jets chances of making the playoffs, as calculated by theringer.com, is at 14%. With the return of Mike White this weekend, that seems low. They need to beat the Seahawks, and the Dolphins next week, then pray for the Patriots to beat the Dolphins or the Bills. Seahawks odds on the same site are 29%, as they need to beat the Jets and Rams, then hope for the Commanders and Packers each lose at least one of their remaining two games. With Seattle’s porous defence, those odds seem very high.
TAKING: NEW YORK -1.5
SCORE (O/U 42.5): Jets 28, Seahawks 20
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (12-3) AT GREEN BAY PACKERS (7-8)
LINE: Green Bay -3.5
CHEWABLE: Packers have won three straight and now have to beat Minnesota, then Detroit next week, and hope the Giants lose out or Commanders to lose once. Step 1 of that equation is attainable, as Vikings have the league’s second worst yard allowed and worst pass defence in the NFL, which means even Aaron Rodgers (who hasn’t thrown for more than 238 yards in six weeks and only once in the last nine) might be able to move the ball against them … Vikings did beat the Packers 23-7 score in the season opener, as Justin Jefferson had nine catches for 184 yards and two touchdowns in that one. Jefferson is now riding a streak of three straight triple digit games to give him 10 on the season. Even though the Packers will score, Vikings will keep up with them and lose their first close one of the season.
TAKING: MINNESOTA +3.5
SCORE (O/U 48.5): Packers 30, Vikings 28
LOS ANGELES RAMS (5-10) AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (9-6)
LINE: Chargers -6.5
CHEWABLE: Chargers have won three in a row to clinch a wild card spot, while Baker Mayfield and the Rams are trying to end a horrid season in a respectable manner … The teams have played just one game since both became based out of Los Angeles, and that 35-28 Rams victory was in 2018 … Cam Akers has rushed for more than five yards per carry over the last two games, and scored three TDs to go along with his 118 ground yards last week, so he should be able to some damage against the Chargers 26th ranked run defence.
TAKING: RAMS +6.5
SCORE (O/U 41): Chargers 30, Rams 24
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (7-8) AT BALTIMORE RAVENS (10-5)
LINE: Baltimore -3
CHEWABLE: Steelers need to win out and for the Patriots and Jets to beat the Dolphins. What they can do on their own is extend Mike Tomlin’s streak of .500 or better seasons to 16, and to do that they need to defeat a Baltimore team that will again have Tyler Huntley at quarterback and has nothing except seeding to play for … Huntley beat the Steelers 16-14 in his first start of the season and won his second game last week, a 17-9 victory over the defensively inept Falcons. He had just nine completions for 115 yards … Steelers will ride the emotional wave from the Franco Harris tribute through the rest of the season, no matter how long that may be.
TAKING: PITTSBURGH +3
SCORE (O/U 36): Steelers 17, Ravens 15
BUFFALO BILLS (12-3) AT CINCINNATI BENGALS (11-4)
LINE: Buffalo -1
CHEWABLE: Monday night matchups can’t get better than this one featuring the Bengals, who have won seven in a row and are at home to the Bills, who have won six straight. From Josh Allen vs. Joe Burrow, to Stefon Diggs vs. Ja’Marr Chase, to the seventh ranked Bills defence to the Bengals 13th ranked defence. Both teams have plenty on the line, with byes and top seedings still up for grabs … Bengals did suffer a major loss on Christmas Eve when tackle La’el Collins went down with torn knee ligaments. His absence will be felt immediately against a Bills team that is 11th in sacks … Worth considering: Bengals are a league-leading 12-3 ATS while the Bills are 7-7-1.
TAKING: CINCINNATI +1
SCORE (O/U 49.5): Bengals 26, Bills 23
Post a Comment