If you’re a Western Canadian Blue Jays fan, you’ve likely already done the math and are well aware that a Toronto-Seattle wild-card round has a fairly high chance of happening on the second weekend of October.
If you’re an optimist within the Jays clubhouse, you’ve likely still got one eye on chasing down the New York Yankees for the AL East title, as remote as those chances might be with three weeks remaining in the schedule.
Then there are the Fangraphs disciples who, had they taken a peak at the season projections prior to Monday’s Jays-Rays contest at the Rogers Centre, would have seen those two teams and the Mariners all pegged to finish in a three-way, 91-win dead heat.
And if you’re Alek Manoah, the beast of the Blue Jays rotation? You say bring it all on.
“The biggest thing is to just go and win as may games as we can, get into that late-September and October stretch where we’re playing our best baseball and then once you get into the playoffs, know that anything can happen,” said Manoah, who will get the ball in the first game of Tuesday’s double-header against the Rays.
“It doesn’t matter who we meet or where we play. To win the World Series, you’ve got to beat all the best teams. I think it’s better to be battle-tested than to be playing some of the weaker teams who might be planning for off-season vacations right now.
“Now is the time of year where this is who we are, so let’s go out and see how good we are.”
Over and above Manoah’s admirable confidence in himself and his teammates, he has a point about the tests that await in the final strides of a season in which the Jays have yet to completely launch offensively.
Besides the five games in four days here against the Rays, there are four more in Tampa, six against the Orioles and three against the Yankees.
Which brings us to our lukewarm projection of that potential date in the Pacific Northwest, the unofficial capital of Jays fans west of Ontario. Of the three main players currently in the AL wild-card race, the M’s have the easiest schedule — and it isn’t particularly close. Following games against the San Diego Padres on Tuesday and Wednesday, the Mariners don’t face a team with a winning record in their remaining 20.
The Rays, meanwhile, have nine games against division leaders — six vs. AL West frontrunners Houston and three against the Guardians of Cleveland — plus their head-to-head wild-card clashes against Toronto.
The Jays are in control of their own destiny, which is preferable. But perhaps more importantly they are seeking a consistency that has been rare this season. Hard not to forget a 6-1 trip through Boston and New York that was followed by a 2-4 clunker of a homestand against the Angels and Cubs.
“The team is in a different spot right now,” was manager John Schneider’s take on why he feels his team might ward off another downturn. “They’re playing a different brand of baseball. I don’t think it’s something they need to bring attention to. I’m sure the guys are well aware of the implications of every game going forward.”
It starts with this Rays series and an opportunity to at least position themselves in a good spot for the top wild-card. There are obvious benefits of securing that position, starting with the fact that it could avoid a 10 or 11-day trip bleeding from the final week of the regular season into the first two rounds of the playoffs.
Getting ahead of ourselves? Sure. But who won’t be checking the scoreboard and standings on a nightly basis from here on in. And the lulls that kept the Jays from reaching pre-season predicted heights don’t matter now.
“It’s easy to look back and say we could have won this game or we could have won that game or whatever,” Manoah said. “But we’re here right now, we’re in a good position and we get to write our own destiny.
“I think we’ve done a good job of minimizing the damage at some points of the year and maximizing really good stretches to put ourselves in a situation where we are in a playoff spot and we have the chance to go out and put ourselves in a better position.”
While all that may be true, there is still a sense around the Jays that they’ve yet to play their best baseball. There have been flashes, yes, but the recent Bo Bichette tear aside, the offence has not been nearly as productive as projected.
Is the potential in there to go deep? We’re about to find out.
“It’s a really, really talented team full of great guys who really mesh well together,” said Whit Merrifield, who has a good read of the clubhouse since arriving with the Jays at the July 31 trade deadline. “I’ll take the talent in here. Our ‘A’ game, is better than a lot of other people’s ‘A’ games. That’s what you want when you’re putting a team together and then it’s just a matter of guys playing well at the right time.
“You put yourself in a position to be successful and you go play.”
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