After all the talk of fence mending that would be needed in the aftermath of such a divisive race, Saturday’s federal Conservative leadership results put a lot of those assumptions to rest. Not only did Pierre Poilievre win nearly 70 per cent of the points on a first-ballot victory against his four rivals, he won almost every single one of the country’s 338 ridings.
In the end, conservatives of all stripes overwhelmingly backed Poilievre, including fiscal conservatives, social conservatives and party members in Quebec, where he dominated nearly all ridings over his main rival, the province’s former premier, Jean Charest.
Poilievre, who is a near-fluent French-speaker, will now have freer reins than his two predecessors, to prepare his party for a real fight against the Liberals.
Each in their own way, the Conservative leaders in the post-Harper years have had a hard time uniting their party and galvanizing enough centre-right support from across the country. For both Andrew Scheer and Erin O’Toole, Quebec was a region where they struggled to capture hearts and minds — a weak link holding them back from becoming prime minister.
But a new window might be opening for the Conservatives to win over Quebec, giving them a genuine chance at a return to power.
Thanks to Charest’s gracious concession speech, Poilievre now has a key ingredient for success that both Scheer and O’Toole fundamentally lacked: an unquestionably united party, including support from Quebec. Poilievre’s landslide win across the province instantly pushed aside the idea of any other group re-splitting the right.
Maxime Bernier’s chances of keeping his People’s Party of Canada alive are now in doubt. And anyone with a desire to create an entirely new, more centrist Conservative party, needed Poilievre to suffer a resounding loss in Quebec, so that a case could be made that he would never be able to win over the province’s power brokers and voters. The opposite happened.
The outcome of the federal Conservative leadership race is bound to redefine the relationship between the Tories and Quebec. Of course we’ll need to see how the Quebec election plays out, and whether Francois Legault embraces Poilievre as a political ally if he’s re-elected as premier on Oct. 3.
Poilievre’s recognition of the importance of hydroelectricity, his fiscal conservative bend, and his commitment to work with the provinces on economic development projects should sit well with Legault and centre-right voters in Quebec.
On his end, if Poilievre wants to keep growing his support in Quebec he will need to put forward real solutions to help people struggling with the cost of living and businesses struggling to operate with a shrinking labour pool. He’ll also have to distance himself from some of the more contentious positions he took during the Conservative leadership race.
If Poilievre can build trust with Quebec power brokers, including a sufficient portion of the political elite, then he will be able to maximize undeniable advantages in Quebec compared to Scheer and O’Toole: mastery of the French language, a down-to-earth agenda that might appeal to many Quebec voters, and, through his wife, real personal roots in French-speaking Quebec. This could resonate with people, and it gives him one more tool previous CPC leaders did not have.
Conservatives have chosen a new kind of leader. Maybe now, in Quebec, can they expect different results.
David Boudeweel-Lefebvre has worked 20+ years in politics and government affairs. He founded Boudeweel Public Affairs in 2020 to help English-speaking business clients successfully navigate French-speaking Quebec.
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