Aaron Judge is having one of the greatest offensive seasons in the history of baseball for the New York Yankees.
Aaron Judge might also not be a New York Yankee for long.
That these statements are both true is one of the fascinating, and frankly bizarre, subplots of the Major League Baseball stretch run.
Judge, the giant outfielder who once seemed too big for the majors, calmly swatted his 58th and 59th home runs on Sunday. He could tie Babe Ruth’s legendary total of 60 as early as Tuesday night, and could just as easily reach Roger Maris’s total of 61 while he was at it. In a just world, Judge’s pursuit of 62 would be the biggest story in sports, but because the Ruth and Maris totals were smashed and smashed again during baseball’s brief love affair with steroids more than two decades ago, Judge is not on a record-breaking pace, just a record-breaking pace if you don’t count the cheaters.
This is both good for the Yankees in that Judge’s absurd season has helped them to the top of the American League East and an all-but-guaranteed playoff spot, but it is also bad for the Yankees in that Judge is a free agent at the end of the season. Bad was doing a lot of work in that sentence. It is a calamity.
Now, you might be wondering why having a superstar who is a pending free agent would be a problem for the Yankees. In their modern prime they have been the biggest and baddest baseball team on the planet, spending freely, raking in massive amounts in the league’s largest market and generally exercising financial muscle that most of their rivals do not possess. The Yankees don’t just go out and buy other another team’s best player — although they do a fair bit of that — but they have crucially been able to keep their own best players by spending whatever it takes to have them remain in pinstripes. The heroes of their late-90s dynasty like Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera retired as Yankees because the team was never going to let someone else lure them away.
Judge, though? Judge is a unique case. He did not agree to a contract extension in the off-season, reportedly turning down a seven-year, US$213-million deal that was perfectly justifiable at the time. A $30-million annual average would put him a little below some of the mega-contracts handed out in recent years, but the Yankees and general manager Brian Cashman were naturally trying to hedge a little. Judge is 30 years old, and had missed significant chunks of three of the previous four seasons due to injury. In electing to play out the 2022 season and hit free agency, Judge was taking the chance that a poor year, or an injured one, would depress his value. The Yankees probably figured that they would still be able to sign him to a deal they could live with, unless he suddenly went supernova in his walk year.
And, kaboom. Judge’s home-run numbers are the most eye-catching part of his season, but he’s leading the American League in almost every offensive category, often with a yawning gap between him and the next-closest player. It’s the kind of year only produced by Hall of Fame players, or players who would have been in the Hall of Fame had their bloodstream not been 50 per cent steroids.
Judge might reasonably demand a 10-year, US$400-million contract now. In a sport that doesn’t have a hard salary cap, some other team might offer it to him. The New York Mets, owned by hedge-fund billionaire Steve Cohen, might just tell him to fill out his own deal, choose the length and numbers that suit him. The only penalty imposed on a team that exceeds baseball’s salary threshold is a tax, which just means spending more money, so one of the sport’s big spenders, perhaps even the Yankees, will almost certainly do it for Judge.
Except they almost certainly should not. Baseball’s weird economics, which suppress the salaries of young players for their first seven seasons, mean that players reach their peak earning years just as they begin to decline. Judge, who won the Rookie of the Year trophy at 25, is an extreme case, primed for his first huge payday when he is about to turn 31, an age when power hitters historically begin to see a drop off that can often be precipitous. Judge’s teammate Giancarlo Stanton signed a mega-deal at 25, has struggled with injuries for several years and this season, at 32 years old, is barely above replacement level. He will still be paid US$150-million over five more years. The Los Angeles Angels famously gave Albert Pujols a 10-year mega-deal at 31, when he was a no-doubt Hall of Famer, and his production nosedived. Those contracts are anchors that make roster building exceedingly difficult, because even the rich teams have a budget.
The Yankees were quite plainly worried about these precedents when they previously talked contract with Judge and his agent. They were trying to be prudent.
Except now they have no choice but to be the proverbial sailors on shore leave. The reaction in New York should Judge leave the Yankees after a season like this would verge on nuclear. The Yankees don’t lose their stars. It’s just not done.
They will, in the end, have to offer Judge the moon. And hope someone else doesn’t offer him the moon and the stars.
Postmedia News
sstinson@postmedia.com
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